Time to take a look back at the 2014 Forecast and Predictions and see how they turned out. Overall 2014 had a number of hits along with some disappointments. Let’s start with a review of the companies that seemed like they could be M&A Targets along with one to sell and see how they did.
| 2014 Picks with Performance Data | |||||
| Acquired | Closing Price 1/6/2014 | Last Trade 12/31/2014 | Percentage of Change | ||
| Blackberry | BBRY | No | 8.01 | 10.98 | 37.08% |
| Fortinet | FTNT | No | 19.24 | 30.66 | 59.36% |
| Game Stop* | GME | No | 48.17 | 33.8 | 29.83% |
| Multi-Fineline | MFLX | No | 13.97 | 11.23 | -19.61% |
| Nuance | NUAN | No | 15.05 | 14.27 | -5.18% |
| Rackspace | RAX | No | 36.73 | 46.81 | 27.44% |
| Average Gain | 21.49% | ||||
| *- Recommended selling or could have gone short | |||||
Highlights of 2014 – On the Money
– Amazon finally getting enough criticism to cause some customers and analysts concern around a number of their strategies.
– Avoiding social media stocks such as Yelp, Twitter, LinkedIn, Facebook along with Amazon which had negative comments in the forecast would have served you well as a number of them were down sharply for the year and the basket would have left you with a loss even with an amazing performance from Facebook.
-The overall portfolio did well against market averages and easily beat them with a 21.49% gain for the year.
– Microsoft was a tough call as they are still struggling with handset sales but they seem to have found a winner with the Surface.
– IoT was on target with a ton of interest and devices being introduced. A number of vendors are jumping in to figure out how to pull all of this data together and make it more useful.
– Google Glass was welcomed to a lukewarm reception. No “killer app” and high price were just a couple of reasons why the units are not flying off shelves.
– Outsourcers and Integrators Disappearing seems to be gaining momentum as a wide range of businesses were either bought, merged or closed up shop in 2014. Many researchers are hot on this trend now.
Lowlights of 2014 – Off the Mark though perhaps some just delayed
– None of the M&A stocks were acquired though there was some notable interest around at least one of the candidates.
– Digital wallet while getting some traction still isn’t widely accepted enough to ditch carrying credit cards and alternate payment methods. Maybe next year especially with Apple’s visibility helping.
– 3D Printing crimes and legal issues were not major issues in 2014
– Apple did not ship a TV or a wearable though one was announced this year.
What could happen in 2015? Check out my next post coming out shortly and let me know if you agree or think I am missing something?